Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, has disclosed his top 10 surprises for 2014.
The latest forecast list by the former U.S. chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley marks the 29th year of annual predictions. He also included his usual list of four “also-rans,” predictions that aren’t as important or have a degree of probability below 50 percent.
1. The stock market is a Dickensian market, “the best of times and the worst of times,” which sees a sharp correction of more than 10 percent early on followed by a move to new highs.
2. The U.S. economy will grow more than 3 percent.
3. The dollar strengthens, trading below $1.25 against the euro and buying 120 yen.
4. Japan’s Shinzo Abe’s aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion results in the Nikkei 225 rising to 18,000 early in the year, but other forces take their toll and the market suffers a sharp 20 percent correction in the second half.
5. The growth rate in China slows to 6 percent due to Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from dependence on investment spending.
6. Emerging market investing continues to be treacherous.
7. The price of oil will exceed $110 a barrel.
8. Agricultural commodity prices on the rise: Corn to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.
9. Higher inflation causes yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to rise to 4 percent.
10. President Obama’s Affordable Care Act has a turnaround as computer access problems are diminished and young people sign up, a plus for the Democrats in the November elections.
1. Ted Cruz emerges as front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
2. Bitcoins collapse.
3. President Obama opens diplomatic relations with Cuba.
4. Hillary Rodham Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016.
“My personal philosophy to beauty is paying attention to oneself. I love to be outdoors, lots of fresh air, trying to take care of yourself as best you can. I always notice that comes through,” says Felicity Jones, the global face of @shiseido-owned @cledepeaubeauteus, which launches today. Head to WWD.com to read more about the actress’ love for beauty and how she prepared for her new role in “The Basis of Sex,” playing the young Ruth Bader Ginsburg. #wwdbeauty (📷: @dandoperalski)
For men’s fall 2018, @giuseppezanotti drew on elements from streetwear, sport, biker, combat and rock ‘n’ roll. Pictured here are a pair of shoes from the collection, featuring zippers, rhinestones, and silver hardware. Head to WWD.com to see a roundup of the accessories from Milan’s men’s fall 2018 shows. #wwdfashion (📷: Andrea Delb)
To celebrate the 25th anniversary of @ralphlauren’s snowboarding collection, the brand is mining its archives. The iconic brand is reintroducing vintage styles and dropping new designs for a color capsule that will be available in Ralph Lauren stores and @openingceremony on January 25. The capsule will consist of 10 pieces, including the Snow Beach Pullover, pictured here, which is a collector’s item that rapper Raekwon wore in Wu-Tang Clan’s “Can It Be All So Simple” video. #wwdfashion (📷: Tom Gould)
For @rochasofficial’s pre-fall 2018 collection, creative director Alessandro Dell’Acqua channeled the sophisticated and intriguing Catherine Denevue in the film “Belle de Jour.” Polished collarless coats, midi skirts, suits and ’60s graphic motifs were all featured in the collection, adding a sense of discreet luxury. See the rest of the photos on WWD.com #wwdfashion
“We tried to produce clothing of that couture quality, but the most daunting part was that we only had a matter of days [to do it],” said costume designer Lou Eyrich, who recreated Gianni Versace’s iconic looks for @americancrimestoryfx. Eyrich searched online retailers and vintage shops for original pieces from the design house and for @penelopecruzoficial, who plays Donatella Versace. Head to WWD.com to read how she created the Versace world. #wwdfashion
Only three months after her stellar debut catwalk season, @kaiagerber has inked her first big design collaboration –– with @karllagerfeld. The collection blends Lagerfeld’s Parisian chic aesthetic and the model’s signature West Coast casual style via RTW, accessories, footwear and more. The #KarlLagerfeldxKaia collection will launch in September with a series of events. Get all the details on WWD.com. #wwdnews #wwdfashion
Harrods plans to remove the famous statue of Princess Diana and Dodi Al Fayed from the bottom of the Egyptian escalators and hand it back to Mohamed Al-Fayed. “We are very proud to have played our role in celebrating the lives of Diana, Princess of Wales and Dodi Al Fayed at Harrods and to have welcomed people from around the world to visit the memorial for the past 20 years,” said Michael Ward, Harrods managing director. “With the announcement of the new official memorial statue to Diana, Princess of Wales at Kensington Palace, we feel that the time is right to return this memorial to Mr. Al Fayed and for the public to be invited to pay their respects at the palace.” More on the news, with reporting by @loreleimarfil, at WWD.com. #wwdnews