Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, has disclosed his top 10 surprises for 2014.
The latest forecast list by the former U.S. chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley marks the 29th year of annual predictions. He also included his usual list of four “also-rans,” predictions that aren’t as important or have a degree of probability below 50 percent.
1. The stock market is a Dickensian market, “the best of times and the worst of times,” which sees a sharp correction of more than 10 percent early on followed by a move to new highs.
2. The U.S. economy will grow more than 3 percent.
3. The dollar strengthens, trading below $1.25 against the euro and buying 120 yen.
4. Japan’s Shinzo Abe’s aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion results in the Nikkei 225 rising to 18,000 early in the year, but other forces take their toll and the market suffers a sharp 20 percent correction in the second half.
5. The growth rate in China slows to 6 percent due to Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from dependence on investment spending.
6. Emerging market investing continues to be treacherous.
7. The price of oil will exceed $110 a barrel.
8. Agricultural commodity prices on the rise: Corn to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.
9. Higher inflation causes yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to rise to 4 percent.
10. President Obama’s Affordable Care Act has a turnaround as computer access problems are diminished and young people sign up, a plus for the Democrats in the November elections.
1. Ted Cruz emerges as front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
2. Bitcoins collapse.
3. President Obama opens diplomatic relations with Cuba.
4. Hillary Rodham Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016.
“What he has done at Vuitton is really exceptional,” said @gameofthrones’ actress Gwendoline Christie on @mrkimjones’ final show for @louisvuitton. “He has rebooted luxury in terms of making it commercial, viable and contemporary. And most importantly artistic. He has never compromised his artistic vision for the sake of commodity.” (📷: @zefashioninsider)
After seeing a demand for men’s wear from its customers, British contemporary women’s wear label @ariesarise has added a men’s wear component and will launch a unisex collection with @mrporterlive. The 20-piece collection includes jackets, denim, logo T-shirts and more with deconstructed ‘90s vibes. Set to launch on January 18, you can shop the pieces on Aries’ website and on mrporter.com. #wwdfashion
“And so spending so much time with a character who thinks like that, inevitability you try and analyze yourself and go back and think about your own demons and dark chapters that you had in your life,” says @thedanielbruhl of his role in TNT’s “The Alienist.” The show, set in the Gilded Age of New York, also stars Dakota Fanning and Luke Evans. Head to WWD.com to read about how 39-year-old Brühl prepared for the role and why he thinks the show is so relevant to today #wwdeye ( 📷: @Eriktanner)
Now that Celine Dion’s collection has topped $10 million in sales, the pop superstar, fashion icon and newly-minted industry player is eyeing growth in Asia. Read the full report by @tiffanyap, link in bio. #wwdnews #celinedion
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Among the familiar faces at @off____white’s show was a surprise figure: Japanese artist @takashipom, pictured here on Wednesday morning. Other show-goers included @jerrylorenzo, who spoke about his upcoming project: a @nike collaboration for back to school, with designs inspired by his childhood on the West Coast. Sitting in the front row were Future, Don Crawley, @miguel and more. See the rest of the photos on WWD.com #wwdeye (📷: Stephane Feugere)
According to @laurentsai, former “Terrace House: Aloha State” cast member, she didn’t know she was auditioning for the Japanese version of “Real World.” “I was telling a couple of my friends and someone’s like, ‘That sounds a lot like Terrace House.’ I was like, ’No it can’t be.’” Turns out, it was. But Tsai isn’t just a reality star — she’s an illustrator who has worked with Starbucks Japan and most recently, she’s dipping her toes into the fashion world. Head to WWD.com to read about her time on the show, modeling and her art. #wwdeye (📷: @danieldorsa)
More changes are coming to New York Fashion Week: Beginning with the spring 2019 collection, @alexanderwangny will move his New York show to June from September, adopting a biannual schedule with collections shown in June and December. Additionally, the @cfda is planning for an official summer/winter fashion season taking place as soon as June and December 2018. Read more about the upcoming changes on WWD.com. #wwdnews #wwdfashion (📷: @slovekinpics)