GENEVA — A deepening of the U.S. housing and mortgage crisis and a hard landing of the dollar could spark a recession this year and seriously impact the projected slowdown in world output and trade growth, according to two new economic reports.
"A recession in the United States cannot be excluded in the year ahead, and economists are divided whether domestic-led growth in Asian markets can drive the global economy," said a report by the World Economic Forum.
The WEF "Global Risks 2008" report, which draws on input from more than 100 top business leaders, concludes there are fears the current liquidity crunch will trigger a recession in the next 12 months. The report estimates the severity of the cost would be in excess of $1 trillion.
Similar warnings are flagged by the United Nations' "World Economic Situation and Pros-pects 2008" report, which projects global economic growth to moderate to 3.4 percent this year, down from 3.7 percent posted last year. It forecasts world trade to expand by 7.1 percent, down from last year's estimated 7.2 percent increase, and the dollar to depreciate another 5 percent.
The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2 percent, down from last year's estimated 2.2 percent. The European Union economy is forecast to expand by 2.3 percent; China, by 10.1 percent, down from 11.4 percent last year, and India, by 8.2 percent.
However, the U.N. report cautions that, under its more pessimistic scenario, factors such as a deeper U.S. housing slump and an accelerated fall of the dollar by 20 percent could combine to "trigger a worldwide recession and disorderly adjustment of the global imbalances."
The pessimistic scenario "is quite probable if a likely U.S. recession is stronger than expected," said U.N. economists such as Heiner Flassbeck, a former top German economic policy maker.
“Azzedine has been one of the biggest influences in my life. He has always been such a strong, loving, fatherly figure to me. I call him Papa. His designs are indescribably unique, they are pieces of art. He knew how to make the female form look its loveliest. I have so many memories of him; my favorite might be during my first show with him in Paris. He liked me and he wanted to help me get more work. He called all his friends at Kenzo and Comme des Garcons, and asked them to book me. They said, ‘But she can’t walk!’ And he said, ‘but she has such a great ass!' His friendship and support has been the great privilege of my career. I can't imagine life without him. Repose en paix mon Papa.” - @stephanieseymour tells @wwd. #wwdfashion (📷: @steveeichner) #alaia #azzedinealaia
Azzedine Alaïa, flanked by two of his closest friends, models Stephanie Seymour and Naomi Campbell.
He designed Seymour’s dress for her 1995 wedding to Peter Brant, and treated Campbell (who famously called him Papa), like a daughter. For more on the legendary designer, tap the link in bio. #wwdfashion #alaia #azzedinealaia
Azzedine Alaïa's “I-did-it-my-way” ethos stood out starkly at a time when brands are experimenting with consumer-facing fashion shows, coed formats and trans-seasonal collections – anything to perk up lackluster sales of ready-to-wear in an age of Insta-everything. “It’s not creation anymore. This becomes a purely industrial approach,” the late designer told WWD in an interview last year. “But anyway, the rhythm of collections is so stupid. It’s unsustainable. There are too many collections.” Read more about the iconic designer’s life and work on wwd.com, link in bio. #wwdfashion #azzedinealaia (📷: @WWD Archive, 1986) #alaia
Sneaker reselling app @goat’s latest exhibit, "The Greatest: New York," tells the story of New York's sneaker culture. To celebrate the exhibit, an intimate crowd gathered on Thursday night at the pop-up gallery space, located at Platform in Culver City, to hear guest speaker and illustrator @esymai talk about her own rise in streetwear and women in the business. "For me I'm just someone who is creative. I like to create things," said Chang. #wwdfashion
Azzedine Alaïa, one of the most iconic couturiers of the modern era whose body-con designs defined Eighties fashion, has died in Paris. The diminutive Tunisian-born designer, known for his structured knitted dresses with fitted waists and impeccably cut, figure-hugging second skin silhouettes was deeply admired by his peers, and counted supermodel Naomi Campbell - his adoptive daughter - among his inner circle, one of a gang of glamazons including Farida Khelfa, Carla Bruni and Stephanie Seymour who became ambassadors of his style. (📷: Alexandre Guirkinger) #wwdblast