By and  on October 2, 2012

Improving consumer confidence will trump the effects of lingering employment woes and the uncertain risks of the “fiscal cliff” and propel retailers to a 4.1 percent increase in holiday sales.

That’s the initial forecast for the season from the National Retail Federation, to be released today by the Washington, D.C.-based trade association. The projection is higher than NRF’s final forecast for a 3.8 percent gain in 2011 holiday sales, a figure which proved overly conservative when sales for the season grew 5.6 percent to $563.02 billion. NRF last year initially projected a 2.8 percent sales increase but in December elevated the number a full point based on the strength of Black Friday weekend and other results early in the season. Sales for holiday 2010 hit $533.39 billion, 5.5 percent over the prior-year period.

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