The HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast is projecting U.S. trade growth to rise 95 percent by 2026.
Similarly, it found that world trade volumes will grow by 98 percent by 2026. The forecast examines global trade trends over the next five, 10 and 15 years.
The study by HSBC Commercial Banking in association with Delta Economics, covers trade trends occurring in every region of the world. It concluded that U.S. companies will increase trade activity by 4.7 percent annually during the next decade as export growth rises with emerging market nations, fueled by their shift to consumption.
Looking ahead, the study found that in the next five years, U.S. export growth is expected to rise fastest in the emerging market countries, with Peru at 8.7 percent, followed by Turkey and Brazil. The latter two countries are expected to see growth of better than 8 percent.
Intra-regional trade will remain an important driver for U.S. firms, with Canada and Mexico — the U.S.’ top two export partners and ranking two and three, respectively, for imports — playing a significant role in the nation’s trade flows.
As for China, the annual growth rate for U.S. exports to the country is expected to outpace U.S. imports from the region during the next five years. By 2026, China and Germany are expected to become the world’s largest importers, beating the U.S., the study concluded.
On a shorter-term basis, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index found that U.S.-based importers and exporters were confident about their expected trade volumes over the next six months. The Index found that 59 percent of the U.S. firms anticipated an overall increase in trade volumes, up 10 percent from the last Index survey released in October 2011. The increase in confidence is due to optimism about the global economy, with 44 percent indicating that they expect it to improve by year end. That’s up from just 29 percent from those who responded a year ago when asked about the second half of 2011.
Steve Bottomley, senior executive vice president, head of Commercial Banking, HSBC, North America, said, “Traditional export-driven economies in ‘emerging’ markets are becoming more consumer-driven and importing more from high-end developed nation producers like the United States to fulfill demand.”
Given the shift and growth drivers, where should U.S. firms focus their attention?
The Index projects that the biggest gains in trade over the next five years will be in Latin America, up 6 percent, and Asia, set to rise 5.4 percent.
U.S. businesses participating in the latest survey of the Index, reported similar results: About 29 percent of U.S. firms see Latin America as the region providing the greatest opportunity for trade growth in the next six months, with 23 percent believing that China is the most promising region.
Brazil is expected to see the fastest annual import growth globally over the next five years at 7.7 percent, with annual growth in China forecast at 5.1 percent for imports and 4.7 percent for exports through 2016.
“Azzedine has been one of the biggest influences in my life. He has always been such a strong, loving, fatherly figure to me. I call him Papa. His designs are indescribably unique, they are pieces of art. He knew how to make the female form look its loveliest. I have so many memories of him; my favorite might be during my first show with him in Paris. He liked me and he wanted to help me get more work. He called all his friends at Kenzo and Comme des Garcons, and asked them to book me. They said, ‘But she can’t walk!’ And he said, ‘but she has such a great ass!' His friendship and support has been the great privilege of my career. I can't imagine life without him. Repose en paix mon Papa.” - @stephanieseymour tells @wwd. #wwdfashion (📷: @steveeichner) #alaia #azzedinealaia
Azzedine Alaïa, flanked by two of his closest friends, models Stephanie Seymour and Naomi Campbell.
He designed Seymour’s dress for her 1995 wedding to Peter Brant, and treated Campbell (who famously called him Papa), like a daughter. For more on the legendary designer, tap the link in bio. #wwdfashion #alaia #azzedinealaia
Azzedine Alaïa's “I-did-it-my-way” ethos stood out starkly at a time when brands are experimenting with consumer-facing fashion shows, coed formats and trans-seasonal collections – anything to perk up lackluster sales of ready-to-wear in an age of Insta-everything. “It’s not creation anymore. This becomes a purely industrial approach,” the late designer told WWD in an interview last year. “But anyway, the rhythm of collections is so stupid. It’s unsustainable. There are too many collections.” Read more about the iconic designer’s life and work on wwd.com, link in bio. #wwdfashion #azzedinealaia (📷: @WWD Archive, 1986) #alaia
Sneaker reselling app @goat’s latest exhibit, "The Greatest: New York," tells the story of New York's sneaker culture. To celebrate the exhibit, an intimate crowd gathered on Thursday night at the pop-up gallery space, located at Platform in Culver City, to hear guest speaker and illustrator @esymai talk about her own rise in streetwear and women in the business. "For me I'm just someone who is creative. I like to create things," said Chang. #wwdfashion
Azzedine Alaïa, one of the most iconic couturiers of the modern era whose body-con designs defined Eighties fashion, has died in Paris. The diminutive Tunisian-born designer, known for his structured knitted dresses with fitted waists and impeccably cut, figure-hugging second skin silhouettes was deeply admired by his peers, and counted supermodel Naomi Campbell - his adoptive daughter - among his inner circle, one of a gang of glamazons including Farida Khelfa, Carla Bruni and Stephanie Seymour who became ambassadors of his style. (📷: Alexandre Guirkinger) #wwdblast