National Cotton Council economists cite a number of key issues that will shape the 2017 economic outlook for the U.S. cotton industry.In recent months, they said, cotton prices have maintained a stronger appearance despite concerns about world demand, Chinese imports below historical levels, weakness in other commodity markets and a stronger dollar. Although several bearish indicators are still in place, a lack of exportable supplies in Central Asia and West Africa coupled with India’s reduced exports is helping to support current prices, they noted.In addition, unfixed on-call sales are providing support to futures prices. But the struggling global economy and man-made fiber competition underscore the challenging landscape facing cotton demand.Jody Campiche, vice president of economics and policy analysis, speaking to delegates at the NCC’s 79th Annual Meeting in Dallas on Saturday, said, “World mill use is expected to exceed world production in 2017 and global cotton stocks are projected to decline by 7.7 million bales in the 2017 balance sheet.”World production is projected to be 105.6 million bales in 2017. World mill use is projected to increase by 1.5 percent in 2017 to 113.4 million bales with most of the growth from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh.While projections of global consumption exceeding production normally would be supportive of prices, the implications for the coming year may not be as clear-cut, as stocks outside of China are projected to increase by 3 million bales for the 2017 marketing year, Campiche noted. The majority of the global stocks decline is due to China’s reduced inventories. While China’s increased consumption of reserve stocks has bolstered mill use in 2016, it also has curbed China’s demand for imported cotton fiber and cotton yarn.Regarding domestic cotton mill use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 2016 U.S. mill use at 3.3 million bales, down 150,000 bales from 2015. The Economic Adjustment Assistance Program continues to be an important source of stability, allowing mills to invest in new facilities and equipment, but the strength of the dollar is creating challenges for yarn exports. For 2017, the NCC is projecting a modest increase in U.S. mill use to 3.4 million bales.Campiche noted that export markets continue to be the primary outlet for U.S. raw fiber. In recent years, U.S. export customers have changed with a significant reduction in exports to China. However, reduced exports to China have been partially offset by increased U.S. exports to Vietnam.For 2016, the NCC estimates U.S. exports at 12.8 million bales, up 39.3 percent from 2015. If the current pace of sales and shipments is maintained, the strong demand for high-quality cotton could push the U.S. export number even higher. The U.S. will remain the largest cotton exporter with a market share of 35.8 percent as compared to 26.0 percent in 2015. While world trade increased slightly in 2016, the gain in U.S. market share largely is attributed to supply issues in other major cotton exporting countries.For the coming year, increased competition from other cotton-producing countries is expected to reduce U.S. exports and market share. With exports pegged at 12.4 million bales, Campiche projects total U.S. offtake of 15.8 million bales in 2017, leading to an increase in ending stocks of 898,000 bales.In China, cotton mill use is again exhibiting signs of growth, but competition from lower-priced man-made fiber remains a limiting factor for the growth of cotton fiber use. Campiche said China’s internal cotton price is still almost twice the level of polyester prices. While China’s reserve auction sales have led to increased consumption by mills, this also has limited China’s imports of raw cotton fiber and cotton yarn.In the current projections, China’s cotton imports are not projected to increase until the reserve stocks are reduced to what they consider a “more reasonable level.” For the 2016 crop year, the latest estimate includes a reduction of 9.9 million bales in ending stocks. In the 2017 marketing year, an additional 10.8 million bale reduction in stocks is expected. A successful auction series over the next two years easily could place China in a position to again become a larger cotton importer.In her analysis of the NCC Annual Planting Intentions survey results, Campiche said the NCC projects 2017 U.S. cotton acreage to be 11.0 million acres, about 9.4 percent more than 2016. With abandonment assumed at 12 percent for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 9.7 million acres. Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 830 pounds generates a cotton crop of 16.8 million bales, with 16.0 million upland bales and 760,000 extra-long staple bales.
For the past three years, U.S. cotton producers have struggled with low cotton prices, high production costs and the resulting financial hardships. While current futures markets have increased since last year, many producers continue to face economic challenges, NCC added.
@chanel and @pharrell dropped what’s being dubbed as the world’s most exclusive sneakers yesterday. The Adidas Originals NMD Hu, which Williams designed in collaboration with Chanel and @adidasoriginals, has a waiting list of over 120K people who pre-registered online at chanelatcolette.fr –– and only 500 pairs are on sale. The singer predicted the resale value of the shoes could reach $40K. Read the full interview on WWD.com. Link in bio. #wwdfashion (📷: Dominique Maître)
@imanshumpert is diving deeper into his creative endeavors and relaunching his clothing line, Post 90s, and is helping to raise money for the hurricane victims in St. Maarten with a jersey he’s designed with his brother. The Cleveland Cavaliers player talked to WWD about kneeling during the national anthem, working with fashion brands and how he wants to be more than an @nba player. Read the interview on WWD.com #wwdfashion (📷: George Chinese)
Not only does #TheProfit return to CNBC tonight, but @marcuslemonis has launched @shopmarcus, a new shopping and lifestyle retail experience in Aspen and Chicago, with more locations to come. The retail stores offer in-store stylists and a variety of contemporary womenswear selections.
“It’s life, I’m going to face it,” @mingxi11 sighed. “I fell, but you know, I think the most important thing is that I get back up. I had the love, the help from my sister — the girl next to me Gizele [Oliveira] — she’s so nice. When I went backstage everybody was trying to comfort me like ‘Oh Ming, it’s OK.’ I’m really, really touched. I think it’s them who gave me the courage to go back on stage for the finale,” Xi told WWD of her fall at the @victoriassecret fashion show. (📷: David Fisher) #wwdfashion #vsfashionshow #victoriassecret
@louisvuitton tapped @therealpeterlindbergh for its latest city-centric photo book, which is part of a series called Fashion Eye. The primarily black and white book captures the spirit of Berlin in 57 images shot between 1989 and 2019. “Berlin is an inspiration for me, more than a city. I mean @millajovovich is simply Berlin!” said Lindbergh. #wwdfashion
“You know, I think audiences expect a certain performance so I have to deliver to them what they’re expecting to a certain degree. But I’m also a different actor and a different person, I have my own spin on the character,” says @noahegalvin of his takeover of the leading role in “Dear Evan Hansen” following the departure of @bensplatt, who originated the role. Read WWD’s interview with the 23-year-old actor on WWD.com #wwdeye (📷: @jilliansollazzo)
For pre-fall 2018, @etro created richly-colored wonderland, using tapestries, textiles and wallpapers from the Eastern world at large. The line featured floral and graphic prints and jacquard motifs, like this two-piece look featured here. #wwdfashion (📷: Giovanna Pavesi)
@kith is moving into children’s. The men’s and women’s streetwear brand has launched Kidset, a Kith kids line located in New York at 64 Bleecker Street. The line includes mini versions of staple Kith pieces like the Astor bomber jacket and the Kith box logo sweatshirts, along with a wall that can display up to 120 pairs of shoes from @adidas, @newbalance, @timberland and more. #wwdfashion
“I just wanted to create this fully rounded character, but I do think what excited me most was just the opportunity to give a group of people representation that I feel needs it. I like to do characters in projects that stand for something and Karolina definitely does, so that was really exciting to me,” @ginnygardner says of her new role in @hulu’s “The Runaways.” Gardner plays Karolina Dean, a queer superhero, which is a rarity for @marvel. Read more about Gardner’s character on WWD.com #wwdeye (📷: @dandoperalski)