Demeter Delivers Good Beauty News
The retail industry has been riding a wave of good news lately, buoyed by a decent Christmas and promising orders for 2011. The Demeter Group delivered even better news in its Beauty Industry 2010 Review by predicting the sagging U.S. cosmetics industry should rebound by 2014.
Demeter said the industry now is valued at $58.3 billion. One huge trend over the past few years is that consumers traded down, often from luxury to less expensive choices. While there is a slight uptick in luxury again, some shoppers may never go back to the items they bought before. Mass merchants are banking on that. Demeter said a new value consumer has emerged and it is a consumer who will pay more for products they feel are high quality. That trend is evident at mass, where consumers have not shown a big resistance to more effective skin care. In fact, Demeter said technological breakthroughs, especially in hair and skin care, are likely to draw shoppers.
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At the other end of the spectrum, however, there continues to be a shift to more private labels, and, as these proprietary brands improve, experts don’t think shoppers will flip back.
Demeter notes shoppers continue to cross-channel shop, a trend that is expected to expand, suggesting different channels can look for synergistic relationships such as Sephora’s presence in J.C. Penney. The destocking trend could continue as retailers put more pressure on manufacturers to not only cut stockkeeping units, but keep inventories on a more just-in-time delivery schedule. Demeter expects more beauty players to invade the U.S. market, especially as sales pick up.
The do-it-yourself trend also will continue to mushroom as shoppers find they can often do their own hair or nails at home. Demeter expects more of a push for exclusives sold only in certain doors à la Hard Candy at Wal-Mart.
As far as a forecast in each beauty category, Demeter sees a move back to bold colors in cosmetics and a focus on eyes. A key effort in facial cosmetics will be the goal of achieving a flawless look. Unfortunately, fragrance sales are expected to further decline, but some unique flavors, such as pepper and mahogany, could boost interest. In hair care, Demeter predicts more interest in hair extensions as well as a continued emphasis on straightening. And in skin care, the industry will continue to be bolstered by better technology in mass lines.
The report also strongly encourages all in the beauty business to have a strong online presence. That is something both marketers and retailers have been somewhat behind in building.
Most of this is great news for cosmetics marketers. But within the research are seeds of ideas that should be cultivated now. For example, get online. It could be a good time to develop exclusives. Retailers might want to look at methods to team up with other retailers to catch shoppers cross-shopping. There are indeed opportunities for more services currently performed in salons to be duplicated with at-home options. If Demeter’s forecast is right, the industry soon will be robust again and satisfying shoppers’ demands for beauty.
People, Places and Things
A few words with Anthony Dickey, creator of Hair Rules. The Demeter research suggests people are doing more hair care at home and Dickey is making that a reality by extending his hair care products to more doors.
WWDBeautyNews: Why do you want to offer your products at more retail doors?
Dickey: “We are seeing interesting changes and are watching how retailers follow the suit of Sephora and Ulta, who are redefining the prestige and mass market. There’s a great opportunity for niche brands and marketing to how women want to buy hair products. We are currently doing well in Ulta and just added Beauty Brands.
WWDBeautyNews: Why do you feel it is important to stress texture?
Dickey: All frizzy or kinky hair isn’t the same. All ethnic groups don’t have one hair type. There is no one-size-fits-all. It is a multitextured world. Hair Rules products clearly address specific texture issues with names that sum it all up, such as Kinky Curling Cream, Blow Out Your Curls or Wavy Mousse. The marketplace hasn’t addressed this yet.
What’s in Store
Freeman Papaya Gives Tropical Treatment: Freeman’s Papaya hair care products contain new formulas. From a formulation standpoint, there is a new Island Moisture Plus, an ultrahydrating, conditioning and revitalizing combination of açaí oil, meadowfoam seed oil, panax ginseng root extract, jojoba oil and hydrolyzed rice protein. Island Moisture Plus builds on Freeman Papaya’s tried-and-true namesake ingredient, papaya extract, a natural humectant and emollient, to fortify and invigorate hair with essential vitamins and the delicious scent of fresh papaya. There’s also a new bottle design to help the line stand out on the shelf.
Celebrities for Every Body Part: The rush to get a celebrity endorsement continues with the latest being Kim Cattrall, best known for her role in “Sex and the City,” who is touting Olay Total Effects 7-in-1 Advanced Anti-Aging Body Wash and Body Lotion.