Despite a looming trade war with China, a global report showed the U.S. economy growing faster in the third quarter, higher than its long-term trending pattern for the year.
Released by Euromonitor International, the global economic forecast for the third quarter “focuses on quarterly macro changes for the world’s economies and what these mean to our view of the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the global economy.”
Overall, Euromonitor’s forecast showed downgrades to the global outlook in the first half of 2019, especially in emerging and developing economies. Global GDP growth is predicted to see a 3.1 percent gain in 2019 before rising 3.3 percent annually in 2020-21.
“Rising trade tensions and a worsening slowdown in global trade and manufacturing” were predicted by Euromonitor International. “Together with more negative signals from financial markets [will] have increased global downturn and emerging markets slowdown risks.”
As reported by WWD, the third quarter has continued to see uncertainty from retailers and consumers in regard to the impact of the U.S.-China trade war. “With China’s Customs Tariff commission saying recently it will impose new tariffs on some $75 billion in goods in response to the U.S. government’s additional 10 percent tariffs on approximately $300 billion in goods imported from China, many are bracing for impact,” authors of the report noted.
According to statistics by Euromonitor, China’s growth showed a deceleration in the third quarter, growing 6.3 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year. The trade war with the U.S. caused a contradiction in exports in the second quarter, though GDP is predicted to see growth of between 5.8 and 6.3 percent this year, and 5.4 to 6.3 percent in 2020.
European luxury is also now bracing for U.S. tariffs as the Trump administration prepares tariffs on goods including handbags, suits and Champagne, according to a report by WWD earlier this week. Retailers are already suffering the effects said another report, though investors are positive with impending negotiations between the U.S. and China to take place next month.
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