LONDON — Sales of luxury goods in China may be robust – but they’re falling short of expectations, according to Euromonitor International, the market research data and analysis firm, which released its 2014 global figures on the industry this week.
Luxury sales in China increased 11.5 percent to $9.6 billion in the five years to 2014 – but that level of growth is waning. Euromonitor has revised down its forecast for the country following slowing economic growth and the government clampdown on conspicuous consumption and luxury gifting.
The firm said it now expects real luxury goods growth in China to come in at 4 percent this year, and 6 percent in 2015. The “heady days of 20 percent-plus growth appear to be over for China’s luxury market,” Euromonitor said.
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The report added, however, that China remains on course to overtake Japan as the second biggest luxury market worldwide, but the shift will be delayed until 2019 from 2016, due partly to a rosier outlook for Japan.
“The good news for China is that the stronger external environment is supporting Chinese exports. This has already been seen in the rebound in industrial production, with real GDP growth slightly higher than expected,” the company said.
The report also said the U.S. remains the largest luxury goods market in the world, valued at $78 billion, and that luxury spending there is more than double that of Japan, the second biggest luxury goods market.
India remains the fastest-growing luxury market in the world, having increased its real market value by 92 percent over the last 5 years.
According to Euromonitor, the outlook for the luxury goods industry is “optimistic” with sales set to reach $405 billion by 2019.
The company also slipped a caveat into its report, aimed at brands looking to grow in the long term.
“Broad geographic and category spread are key for sustained corporate and brand health…putting too much emphasis on one area might have short-to-medium-term benefits, but is likely to lead to longer-term difficulties,” Euromonitor said.