So far, so good — global growth remains on track to hit a projected 3.2 percent for 2018, but trade policy risk could be the biggest threat down the road.
That’s according to The Conference Board’s current look at world GDP rates. The Board’s economists said at a presentation on Monday at the company’s Manhattan headquarters that the short term — or six months out — looks good. Even if there’s an escalation in either tariffs or quotas, which would raise some risks, the impact won’t be felt until 2019 or 2020. Those risks include disruptions in the supply chains, and possible slowdowns if businesses hold off on investments and hiring on the labor front.