Hermes store in Hong Kong

MILAN — Sales of personal luxury goods are expected to post an average yearly growth of 3 percent to 5 percent at constant exchange rates from 2018 until 2025, according to the Bain & Company Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study released on Thursday as part of the Altagamma Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor.

This would mean a forecast of total revenues of between 320 billion euros and 365 billion euros in 2025. The study expects the growth will be driven by “solid fundamentals” and the attitude of global consumers.

Bain does not rule out some “turbulence” in the near future, such as a soft recession in the U.S. and a slight slowdown of the Chinese economy, but this “does not detract from the solid potential of the future market.”

The personal luxury goods market is expected to close 2018 with revenues of 260 billion euros, a 2 percent increase compared with 2017. At constant exchange rates, the growth is forecast to reach 6 percent.

All geographic markets showed growth, with the exception of the Middle East, which was stable. China logged in a “particularly positive trend” and was driven by local purchases, as Chinese tourism was less strong in Europe. The rest of Asia was also strong, led by local shopping and increased Chinese shoppers spending in nearby countries.

The online channel is accelerating, with a 10 percent penetration of the global market.

Jewelry and shoes are the top categories, while apparel was down 1 percent, due mainly to the slowdown of the accessible luxury giants, especially in the men’s wear segment.

The luxury goods sector is expected to log 5 percent growth at constant exchange rates to 1.2 trillion euros in 2018. Next year, sales of personal luxury goods are expected to grow around 5 percent.