Wells Fargo Securities retail equity analyst Ike Boruchow and his team crunched the numbers on President-elect Donald Trump‘s tax plan and found that a cut in the corporate tax rate would have a significant impact on the bottom line of U.S. domestic retailers.
Boruchow’s team said in research note this morning that retailers that could benefit includes Ross Stores Inc., Burlington Coat Factory, Ulta Beauty, The Finish Line Inc. and Boot Barn Holdings. And in a separate, but related report, fiscal policy analysts said Trump’s tax plan would also create jobs — although federal revenue would be significantly reduced.
“Given President-elect Trump’s plan to lower the federal corporate tax rate to 15 percent (from 35 percent), investors are already expressing interest in the potential implications for our group,” Boruchow said. “By our calculations, those businesses that generate most or all of their profits domestically would experience a 30 to 35 percent increase in their earnings power (all else equal), with the largest benefits experienced by 100 percent-domestic businesses.”
Boruchow’s model also means that companies that are “highly diversified geographically and generate a low percentage of profits domestically (such as Nike, PVH Corp., Fossil Group Inc., Hanesbrands Inc. and even Lululemon Athletica Inc.) do not stand to benefit to nearly the same extent (though global companies would likely benefit from a greater ability to repatriate foreign cash).”
The analyst acknowledged that enacting the tax plan is “uncertain at the moment,” but if implemented it would be most “beneficial to companies that generate most or all of their profits domestically, as the taxes on foreign income would presumably be unchanged.”
Trump, who will be the first president from New York to hold office since Franklin D. Roosevelt, outlined the tax plan (and other initiatives touted during the election) on his campaign web site. The nonprofit, nonpartisan Tax Foundation analyzed the plan and using its “growth model” said that the “plan would increase the long-run size of the economy by 6.9 percent under the higher-rate assumption, or 8.2 percent under the lower-[growth rate] assumption.”
“The larger economy would result in 5.4 percent higher wages and a 20.1 percent larger capital stock under the higher-rate assumption, or 6.3 percent higher wages and a 23.9 percent larger capital stock under the lower-rate assumption,” the analysts at the foundation said in their report. “The plan would also result in 1.8 million more full-time equivalent jobs under the higher-rate assumption, or 2.2 million more under the lower-rate assumption.”
These gains would also “reduce federal revenue by between $4.4 trillion and $5.9 trillion on a static basis. The amount depends on the nature of a key business policy provision.”
The analysts at the foundation said its projections “do not include the economic effects of proposals by Trump that are not specifically tax related. For example, spending, trade and immigration proposals are not part of this analysis, even though they are likely to affect the economy substantially and they are therefore worthy of consideration.”