GENEVA — World trade volume in goods is forecast to grow by 3.0 percent in 2022, down from the previous projection of 4.7 percent in October, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday, but cautioned the outlook is marked by “enormous uncertainty” because of the war in Ukraine and continued economic shocks delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic.Last year, driven by strong consumer demand, including for apparel, trade volume grew by 9.8 percent, the organization said.“The economic reverberations of this conflict will extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders. It is now clear that the double whammy of the pandemic and the war has disrupted supply chains, increased inflationary pressures, and lowered expectations for output and trade growth,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO director-general.Lockdowns in China to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the WTO said, “are again disrupting seaborne trade at a time when supply chain pressures were easing. This could lead to renewed shortages of manufacturing inputs and higher inflation.”
Okonjo-Iweala told reporters that given the fluid situation, WTO economists estimate merchandise trade volume in 2022 “could be as low as 0.5 percent or as high as 5.5 percent.*Concerning global trade in goods last year, the WTO said the value increased by 26 percent to $22.4 trillion, with the world’s top exporter, China, registering an increase of 30 percent to $3.36 trillion, followed by the U.S. with a 23 percent expansion to $1.75 trillion and Germany with an 18 percent gain to $1.63 trillion.In apparel, preliminary estimates by WTO economists indicate the value of exports increased in 2021 by 21 percent to around $550 billion.Coleman Nee, senior WTO economist, told WWD that “apparel trade rebounded last year” after a contraction of 9 percent in 2020.He said that overall the value of apparel trade was above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 crisis levels.In 2021, China, the world’s biggest apparel exporter, registered a 24 percent increase to $176 billion, WTO data show.Similarly, major exporters Bangladesh and Vietnam posted gains of around 24 percent and 11 percent, respectively, and their shipments were valued at over $30 billion each.Other emerging country apparel exporters that posted increases last year included Turkey, up 22 percent to $18.7 billion; Cambodia, up 8 percent to $8 billion; India, up 24 percent to $16.1 billion; Indonesia, up 23 percent to $9.3 billion, and Pakistan, up 36 percent to $8.4 billion.Double-digit gains were also posted by Sri Lanka, Egypt, Jordan, Mexico, Canada, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Peru, among others.European apparel-exporting countries that notched gains, the WTO said, included Italy, with a 19 percent increase to $27.4 billion; Germany, up 13 percent to $27.3 billion; Spain, up also 32 percent to $16.8 billion, and France, up 19 percent to $14.1 billion.The U.S. posted a 26 percent increase to $6.1 billion.In 2021, apparel exporters that posted double-digit contractions included sanctions-hit Myanmar (Burma), and the United Kingdom.