As the International Council of Shopping Centers’ annual ReCon convention begins in Las Vegas and runs through Wednesday, developers and retail executives are gathering against a gloomy backdrop not seen since the depths of the Great Recession. So far in 2017, about 2,880 store closures have been announced, with experts predicted 8,640 store closures by year-end. That exceeds the 6,163 stores shuttered in 2008.
This story first appeared in the May 22, 2017 issue of WWD. Subscribe Today.
Costar’s Portfolio Strategy group said the number of stores bears out the oversupply of retail units and the growing market share captured by e-commerce sales. Retailers need to rationalize nearly 1 billion square feet of U.S. store space in order to reverse the trend in declining sales per square foot, the company said.
Here, a look at some key industry data:
(All data is attributed to ICSC unless otherwise indicated.)
Shopping Center Impacts
One out of 11 jobs in the U.S. is shopping-center-related.
Two-thirds of the $18 trillion U.S. GDP comes from consumer spending on goods and services.
Almost 22 percent of shopping center tenants are not retail related, for example, health care, fitness and education. Some malls have university satellite locations within their walls.
The value of U.S. shopping center real estate is $1.3 trillion.
Over the last five years, the real estate investment trust regional index rose 112.2 percent, and the local REIT index rose 102.1 percent, compared to the S&P 500, which rose 87.4 percent.
Shopping centers contribute $25.7 billion annually to local tax rolls, while state and local sales taxes add up to $167.3 billion.
Value of shopping center construction, including work done to both new and/or existing structures: $17.5 billion in 2016, which is 7.4 percent higher than 2015, and the highest level since 2008. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Shopping Center Performance
Base rent as of March 2017 of all shopping centers in the U.S.: $4.82, compared with March 2016, $4.81, and March 2015, $4.54. Source: NCREIF
Shopping center occupancy rates at the end of the first quarter of 2017: 92.4 percent.
Mall segment — combined super-regional and regional malls at the end of the first quarter of 2017: 92.7 percent. Source: NCREIF
National operating income (NOI, a key indicator of value) up 0.5 percent in March 2017 over the previous March. Source: NCREIF