NEW DELHI — India, which has been the second-largest producer of cotton in the world, is now set to take the number-one spot, replacing China for the first time in 30 years.
The estimate by the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week that India would produce 6.56 billion kilograms of cotton (or 30 million bales of 480 pounds each) in 2014-15, revising its estimate by 1 million bales, further validated projections made by Indian economists and agencies over the past few months.
The production numbers forecast by the USDA are in line with those from the Cotton Advisory Board, India, which has predicted production for 2014-15 in India of 6.63 billion kilograms of cotton.
The USDA predictions for China in the coming year remain at 6.4 million kilograms (or 29.5 million bales of 480 pounds each) for 2014-15. This is down from last season’s 7.04 million kilograms, or 32 million bales.
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“No, we’re not jubilant,” Dhiren Sheth, president of the Cotton Association of India, said. “We had already made this prediction and have been preparing for this for years. It is a result of some very consolidated work by the government, scientists and the farmers.”
As the USDA revised its earlier prediction of cotton production in India from 29 million bales of 220 kilograms last month (or 6.3 billion kilograms) by an additional million to 30 million bales (or 6.4 billion kilograms), it was the first time China’s position as largest producer of cotton in the world will be challenged over the past three decades.
“There have been many years of efforts in India,” said Sheth, reiterating that CAI had already predicted two months earlier, in July, that India would be the world’s number-one cotton producer in 2014-15.
“The change is happening because of many reasons — the first is genetically modified seeds; second, an increase in awareness levels in farmers and a change in attitudes of the younger generation of farmers, who have learnt to manage things better — they are educated and have been leading a revolution in terms of thinking. There have also been differences in the availability and privatization of seeds,” he said.
Ajay Kumar, economist at the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, noted that there were no surprises with the prediction either. “This has been inevitable for some time,” he said. “This year it may be by a very small margin, but in the future it will continue to grow. The facts are simple: China has 5.4 million hectares for cotton compared to 12.37 million hectares in India. The irrigated cotton area within this is 5.8 million hectares, already more than the total area in China. However, China has a far higher productivity per hectare, but this year India has pushed hard. Even if we continue to increase the yield in the irrigated land, it will continue to grow, and we have more than 50 percent more land under cotton than China.”
Kumar said that a focus on increasing productivity would be one of the key issues in the coming years. Productivity per hectare is highest in the state of Gujarat, which leads the country in cotton production, followed by Maharashtra.
The area under cotton cultivation in India is expected to be up from 12.37 million hectares to 12.6 to 12.7 million hectares by next year, whereas China is expected to reduce its area under cotton to 4.35 million hectares.
This year, the uncertainty in India over cotton production because of a delayed monsoon has given way to some relief over the past month. It has meant that farmers who intended to abandon cotton farming for the season have continued to invest, buoying hopes across the industry.
“However, in view of the improved rains, subsequently, acreage under cotton in India during the 2014-15 crop year is likely to be record high, and if the weather continues to remain favorable, India’s crop size during the 2014-15 crop season will be substantially higher than what is estimated currently by the CAI,” Sheth noted.
Sheth observed that CAI had estimated the cotton crop for the 2013-14 season at 40.35 million bales (one bale equals 170 kilograms in India) or 6.85 billion kilograms, while the arrivals up to Aug. 31 were 40.2 million bales or 6.83 billion kilograms.
The cotton season in India runs from October to September.